Civil War in Ethiopia: Tigray Conflict Explained


Ethiopia has been under a brink of a civil war. On November 4, Nobel Peace Prize winning Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared war in the country’s Tigray region, which is ruled by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). 

The war was declared in response to TPLF's attack on a federal military base located in Tigray. Tigrayans make up roughly 6% of Ethiopia’s 110 million people. They have traditionally enjoyed outsized influence in the government.

On the other hand, the largest ethnic group Oromos have complained of marginalization. Mr. Abiy and Oromo has said that his mandate is to place Ethiopia’s interests over the regions and correct the uneven distribution of power.


Political Scenario of Ethiopia

Ethiopia has about 80 ethnonational groups. The Oromo, the Amhara and the Tigrayans are the major ethnonational groups of Ethiopia.

Before 1991 Ethiopia was under control of a military dictator named Mengistu Haile Mariam. In may 1991, a coalition of rebel forces under the name Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) overthrew the military dictatorship in Ethiopia. 

In 1975, a resistance army of Tigrayan people named as TPLF was founded against the military dictatorship in Ethiopia. The TPLF played a crucial role in ousting the dictator Mengistu Mariam and they were welcomed as the national heroes in 1991.

The TPLF leader Meles Zenawi took over as the interim president in 1991 and later in 1995 became the first elected Prime Minister of the country. 

Mr. Zenawi formed the coalition named Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) consisting of various political parties such as Amhara Democratic Party, the Oromo Democratic Party and the Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement and the TPLF. 

Among them all TPLF was the dominant political party.

From 1991 to 2017, EPRDF provided stable rule in the country with high economic growth but failed at managing the ethnic diversity of the country. EPRDF was facing criticism against the country's ethno-federal arrangement.

In 2018, the EPRDF chose Mr. Abiy Ahmed, a former military intelligence officer, to lead the government amid growing protests and a political deadlock.

On coming to power using his affiliation with the Oromo people, Abiy launched a reform agenda in which he promised to expand the political space, respect human rights, build independent institutions such as elections board and independent judiciary, and to institute economic reforms in the country.

Moreover, he also initiated peace with Eritrea (country which shares long border with the Tigray region of Ethiopia). Based on the promises he made the peace talks with Eritrea he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.


Reasons Behind the Political Unrest and Crisis in Ethiopia

Mr. Abiy, the country’s first Oromo leader claimed that his actions and agendas are free of the ethnic calculations and he is focused in maintaining peace within the country and also with the neighbors. 

But TPLF find his moves hostile and aligned towards consolidating more powers to his hands. The Tigrayans have also accused Mr. Abiy of taking away their rights.

Mr. Abiy is being criticized in the Oromo region since he is making the moves which clearly dictate that he wants more powers for the federal government.

After October 2019, a failed attempt was made to haul a grenade at Mr. Abiy during a massive rally led to a deadly explosion in the capital Addis Ababa.

Ethiopia’s military chief was shot dead by his bodyguard amid a failed co-attempt against the Amhara regional government.

In July 2020, Hachalu Hundessa a popular singer from Oromo was shot dead. He had been a rallying voice in the anti-government protests that preceded Mr. Abiy’s rise to power.

Following this, hundreds of people were killed and thousands arrested during the days of unrest. Internet Shutdown was done by authorities for weeks. These steps by government led the human rights groups to warn of the return of the repressive government measures.


Conflict Between Abiy and TPLF


Mr. Abiy, as Prime Minister took some steps which clearly aimed at minimizing the greater influence of the TPLF in the government. He ejected out TPLF functionaries from central government posts, freed prisoners who were jailed by the TPLF-led government and guaranteed freer media.

The tensions were building up for a while. Except the TPLF all the constituent parties under EPRDF joined a new political coalition named as the Prosperity Party which was formed by Mr. Abiy. It was concluded by the TPLF that Mr. Abiy formed the new coalition to grab more powers in his hands.

In August, Mr. Abiy’s government cited COVID-19 as the reason to postpone the parliamentary elections. And the TPLF openly opposed the decision. In defiance of the federal government the TPLF held elections in the Tigray region and blamed Mr. Abiy of power grab.

Then on November 3, TPLF militants attacked and looted a federal military command in the Tigray region and captured military hardware and equipment, prompting Mr. Abiy to declare the military operation.

Eritrean government and the TPLF had fought a prolonged war along the Tigray border. And the move made by Mr. Abiy to make peace with Eritrea had outraged the TPLF. The TPLF now accuses Eritrea of backing Mr. Abiy's offensive.

Tigray rebels also fired rockets into the neighbouring Amhara region. In spite of the fact that Mr. Abiy wants to keep the operation short, it could fall out of control given the underlying difference of opinion.

Written by - Sanjana Yadav

Edited by - Sandhya R

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