The State of Palestine is recognized by 138 UN members and since 2012 has a status of a non-member observer state in the United Nations.
The diplomatic agreements being signed, among the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Israel present formidable challenges to the long-standing paradigm for peacemaking in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and are yet to provide a viable substitute. While final contours of the agreements remain to unfold, their approach undermines the paradigm of providing an incentive for Israel to accept Palestinian self-determination as part of normalized relations with its Arab neighbors.
With the Israeli-Palestinian divide wider now than any time since 1967, the erosion of these cornerstones for peacemaking is a precursor for an eventual new crisis.
The Collapsing Foundation
For decades, Palestinians and most of the international community generally have envisioned the same sustainable final settlement, the two-state solution, and the diplomatic tools for building it. The notional “stick” has been Israelis’ eventual recognition that the alternative to two states—an Israel that is either undemocratic or subject to a non-Jewish majority—is objectionable. The “carrot” was peace and Israel’s acceptance and integration into a region of Arab states.
In recent months, all stakeholders to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have justifiably focused on Israel’s threat to annex Palestinian territory in the West Bank. The suspension of that disastrous step is indisputably a positive development, and the accord with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) contributed significantly to achieving this objective.
The Collapsing Foundation
For decades, Palestinians and most of the international community generally have envisioned the same sustainable final settlement, the two-state solution, and the diplomatic tools for building it. The notional “stick” has been Israelis’ eventual recognition that the alternative to two states—an Israel that is either undemocratic or subject to a non-Jewish majority—is objectionable. The “carrot” was peace and Israel’s acceptance and integration into a region of Arab states.
In recent months, all stakeholders to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have justifiably focused on Israel’s threat to annex Palestinian territory in the West Bank. The suspension of that disastrous step is indisputably a positive development, and the accord with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) contributed significantly to achieving this objective.
The UAE Foreign Ministry has said that the country’s normalization of relations with Israel would be unaffected if Israel were to conduct annexations in some months, yet it will be difficult for Israel to rescind this suspension anytime soon without risking damage to this normalization.
Regional Acceptance
For years, the United States, the European Union and Israel have used official talks and unofficial, “track-two” diplomacy to urge Arab countries to make gestures to convince Israelis that living in peace with the rest of the region is possible. Policymakers and analysts frequently cite hopes for a “Sadat to Jerusalem moment”—a reference to Egyptian President Anwar Sadat’s 1977 trip, which transformed Israeli public opinion and paved the way for the 1979 Camp David peace accords.
The Arab Peace Initiative of 2002 enshrined this paradigm, offering Israel full regional normalization in return for Israel’s acceptance of a sovereign and viable Palestinian state in Israeli-occupied lands, with East Jerusalem serving as its capital. In 2009, at the behest of The Arab League, the foreign ministers of Egypt and Jordan traveled to Israel to present this plan to the Israeli leadership and public. Other Arab countries have offered gestures including hosting Israeli trade or representative offices, hosting economic summits, or through political positions.
The partial normalization of Arab relations with Israel—a significant cession of leverage for Palestinian rights in service to other Arab interests—arises as the divisions between Israel and the Palestinians continue to widen. These shifts combine to make a negotiated agreement even harder to achieve.
Palestinian Statehood
Previous negotiations, while fraught, framed a goal of a sovereign, viable Palestinian state. Today, Israel’s government is trying to reassure a far-right constituency that rejects even the fragmented Palestinian entity, deprived of key attributes of sovereignty, that is proposed in the Trump plan. Accordingly, the Israeli prime minister has tried to balance enthusiasm for the U.S. proposal with a message to the plan’s right-wing detractors that a meaningful Palestinian state is not in the cards.
Israeli Settlers
Previous negotiations were based on minimizing the number of settlers to be relocated by negotiating the areas to be swapped. Olmert suggested to Abbas a land swap that would leave 85 percent of settlers under Israeli sovereignty; Abbas’ proposal would have kept 63 percent in place. The current Israeli position is that not a single settler will be moved.
Palestinians Territory
Palestinians argue that their huge concessions over the years are unrecognized. They have accepted a future Palestinian state on only 22 percent of “Mandatory Palestine,” the Palestinian territory defined a century ago. They note they have agreed to land swaps around the 1967 borders, expressed willingness to allow Israelis to remain as residents in Palestine, and agreed to only a symbolic return of refugees. Palestinian leadership does not feel that it can make further concessions on issues such as Israeli control of Al-Aqsa Mosque, sovereignty and recognition of the rights of Palestinian refugees.
Conclusion
The gaps between the Israeli and the Palestinian positions, now wider than at any point since 1967, are approaching the point of being unbridgeable. This is one of the main reasons why many Palestinians believe that the two-state solution is dead. This has led to a rise in support for a single binational state among younger Palestinians—an outcome that risks more violence.
The historic paradigm for peace is damaged, without clarity on whether it could be replaced. Israeli society is moving steadily to the right, feeling no pressure to concede. Palestinians are weak and divided, and the gap is growing between them and Israelis. And the Arab world is in flux. All this is collapsing the foundation for peace and preparing for the next perfect storm. Leaders will need to work hard to prevent this collapse or prepare for an inevitable new crisis.
Written by - Jesvin Joseph
Regional Acceptance
For years, the United States, the European Union and Israel have used official talks and unofficial, “track-two” diplomacy to urge Arab countries to make gestures to convince Israelis that living in peace with the rest of the region is possible. Policymakers and analysts frequently cite hopes for a “Sadat to Jerusalem moment”—a reference to Egyptian President Anwar Sadat’s 1977 trip, which transformed Israeli public opinion and paved the way for the 1979 Camp David peace accords.
The Arab Peace Initiative of 2002 enshrined this paradigm, offering Israel full regional normalization in return for Israel’s acceptance of a sovereign and viable Palestinian state in Israeli-occupied lands, with East Jerusalem serving as its capital. In 2009, at the behest of The Arab League, the foreign ministers of Egypt and Jordan traveled to Israel to present this plan to the Israeli leadership and public. Other Arab countries have offered gestures including hosting Israeli trade or representative offices, hosting economic summits, or through political positions.
The partial normalization of Arab relations with Israel—a significant cession of leverage for Palestinian rights in service to other Arab interests—arises as the divisions between Israel and the Palestinians continue to widen. These shifts combine to make a negotiated agreement even harder to achieve.
Palestinian Statehood
Previous negotiations, while fraught, framed a goal of a sovereign, viable Palestinian state. Today, Israel’s government is trying to reassure a far-right constituency that rejects even the fragmented Palestinian entity, deprived of key attributes of sovereignty, that is proposed in the Trump plan. Accordingly, the Israeli prime minister has tried to balance enthusiasm for the U.S. proposal with a message to the plan’s right-wing detractors that a meaningful Palestinian state is not in the cards.
Israeli Settlers
Previous negotiations were based on minimizing the number of settlers to be relocated by negotiating the areas to be swapped. Olmert suggested to Abbas a land swap that would leave 85 percent of settlers under Israeli sovereignty; Abbas’ proposal would have kept 63 percent in place. The current Israeli position is that not a single settler will be moved.
Palestinians Territory
Palestinians argue that their huge concessions over the years are unrecognized. They have accepted a future Palestinian state on only 22 percent of “Mandatory Palestine,” the Palestinian territory defined a century ago. They note they have agreed to land swaps around the 1967 borders, expressed willingness to allow Israelis to remain as residents in Palestine, and agreed to only a symbolic return of refugees. Palestinian leadership does not feel that it can make further concessions on issues such as Israeli control of Al-Aqsa Mosque, sovereignty and recognition of the rights of Palestinian refugees.
Conclusion
The gaps between the Israeli and the Palestinian positions, now wider than at any point since 1967, are approaching the point of being unbridgeable. This is one of the main reasons why many Palestinians believe that the two-state solution is dead. This has led to a rise in support for a single binational state among younger Palestinians—an outcome that risks more violence.
The historic paradigm for peace is damaged, without clarity on whether it could be replaced. Israeli society is moving steadily to the right, feeling no pressure to concede. Palestinians are weak and divided, and the gap is growing between them and Israelis. And the Arab world is in flux. All this is collapsing the foundation for peace and preparing for the next perfect storm. Leaders will need to work hard to prevent this collapse or prepare for an inevitable new crisis.
Written by - Jesvin Joseph
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