India overtakes China and becomes the world's most populated country according to a world population review. The National Bureau of Statistics in China reported a drop of 8,50,000 in the population at the end of 2022 and it marked the beginning of what is expected to be a long period of population decline, despite all government efforts to reverse the trend.
While for a country of more than 1.4 billion people, the difference is relatively small, it’s indicative of a problematic demographic shift for the country in which the old increasingly outnumber the young. It’s not clear if COVID-19 played a significant role in deaths exceeding births last year in China, amid concerns that the government isn’t being transparent about the virus’ true death toll. But population contraction has long been in the cards for China, and further decline is expected in the years to come.
Cause for Population Decline in china
China experienced rapid demographic growth after World War II: its population went from around 540 million in 1949 to some 969 million in 1980. But more people meant faster consumption of a limited supply of resources. So in 1980, Communist Party leader Deng Xiaoping instituted the one-child policy, which was ostensibly in effect for more than 35 years before the limit was expanded to two children in 2016 and then expanded to three in 2021.
While enforcement of strict birth control has been uneven, China’s social experiment in family planning did achieve its initial goal. The country’s fertility rate steadily decreased since the 1970s, while life expectancy has gone in the opposite direction, rising from 57 years in 1970 to 78 in 2020, according to the World Bank.
Lesson for India
While for a country of more than 1.4 billion people, the difference is relatively small, it’s indicative of a problematic demographic shift for the country in which the old increasingly outnumber the young. It’s not clear if COVID-19 played a significant role in deaths exceeding births last year in China, amid concerns that the government isn’t being transparent about the virus’ true death toll. But population contraction has long been in the cards for China, and further decline is expected in the years to come. This is something India can learn as to not implement any law on the number of children as it can backfire.
The stringent population control measures have landed China in the midst of a population crisis. Today, Sikkim, Goa, Jammu and Kashmir, Kerala, Puducherry, Punjab, Ladakh, West Bengal and Lakshadweep also face the challenge of an ageing population, labour pool in short supply and an increase in sex-selective practices, given the fertility rate which is well below the replacement level of Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which is defined as the rate at which the population exactly replaces itself.
Lessons can be learned from China’s demographic tale by nations that have attempted significant social engineering efforts. China has been attempting and failing for the better part of two decades to encourage families to increase birth rates, which have been falling since the government enacted a strict “one-child policy” in 1980.
The late implementation of a “two-child policy” in 2016 to address the situation did not elicit the positive response that the planners had anticipated for a relaxation announced with fanfare. According to a government survey, 70% of respondents said they could not afford to have more children.
There are also societal repercussions-As the population ages, there will be fewer employees to pay for pensions and healthcare, which will result in a rise in demand for these services and put pressure on China’s social security system. Because many young people are already working to support their parents and two sets of grandparents, there will also be fewer people to care for the elderly.
Response of the Chinese Government
Officials in China have increased their efforts to support larger families, notably through a multi-agency plan unveiled last year to expand maternity leave and provide tax discounts and other benefits to families. They want to create a legislative framework that will increase fertility rates while lowering the price of childbearing and education. They also intend to develop aged care programs and services, implement a proactive national policy in response to population ageing, and improve services for elderly persons who are living alone. The common people are asking for wider national reforms. Issues like low salaries and high rents increase the financial pressure on the earning member.
There have been many opinions that the population decrease is good as it would free up more resources needed to increase the standard of living and boost economic growth. Some researchers think that the smaller population will benefit from climate change and the environment, especially during the exponentially accelerating global warming and biodiversity loss. The world’s population expansion makes it difficult to end global hunger and poverty, as well as to slow down climate change, but China is not the only country that is concerned about its population loss and its age demographics, which are becoming more skewed.
Written by Akshita Bist
Edited by Nidhi Jha
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