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| Source: istock |
It is named after the Spanish term for "the Christ Child" due to its tendency to occur around Christmas, It is a complex climate phenomenon that impacts weather patterns across the Earth.
In this article, we will explore "what is El Niño" and its mechanism and we will explore the predictions, expected impact, current scenario and effects of El Niño on India's food security.
Understanding Walker Circulation and Trade Winds
Understanding Walker Circulation and Trade Winds
So what is Walker Circulation, it is an east-west atmospheric circulation pattern or air flow from west to east, Where warm moist air rises above the western Pacific due to the high sea surface temperatures which creates a zone of low pressure and this results in the rise of air which flows eastward at upper levels in the atmosphere, descends over the central and eastern Pacific in form of rain after which returns to the west at the surface.
And trade winds are the surface winds that blow reliably from east to west across tropical oceans driven by the pressure created by the temperature differences between the eastern and western Pacific. These winds help to maintain the Walker Circulation by pushing warm surface waters westward, causing upwelling of cooler, nutrient-rich waters in the eastern Pacific.
The Walker Circulation and Trade Winds are crucial components of the Earth's atmospheric circulation, playing a significant role in shaping weather patterns and climate across the tropical Pacific region. Understanding and monitoring these atmospheric circulation patterns are vital for climate predictions and mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods, and hurricanes.
Understanding El Niño
El Niño is a fascinating climatic phenomenon where warm Pacific waters and atmospheric winds interact. The Walker Circulation drives this process, with rising warm air over the western Pacific and descending air over the eastern Pacific. Trade Winds help sustain this pattern by pushing warm surface waters westward.
During El Niño, this normal dance is disrupted, causing ocean warming and global weather changes. It leads to floods, droughts, and impacts on agriculture, marine life, and communities worldwide. Understanding El Niño is essential to protect our planet's delicate balance and respond to its effects.
Understanding the Effect of El Niño on India’s Food Security
El Niño is a weather phenomenon that occurs every 4-7 years and has the potential to significantly impact agriculture and food grain availability in India. As the country heavily relies on agriculture for its economy and employment, any changes in weather patterns can have far-reaching consequences.
Predictions for 2023
In 2023, the World Meteorological Department declared that a La Niña event is 90% likely to take place throughout the first quarter, from January to March. The validity of this projection was subsequently confirmed by the unprecedented and untimely rainfall that unexpectedly surged into India during March.
Furthermore, the possibility of an El Niño occurrence looms precariously, with a 50-50 chance of taking form from July to September, synchronizing with India's monsoon period. Given these forecasts, there is growing apprehension regarding the potential consequences of agricultural activities and the availability of essential food grains.
Expected Impact
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has reassured that even if El Niño does occur it may not necessarily cause a significant impact on agriculture. According to IMD, it predicts that rainfall might remain at 94-96% of the long-period average and with an error margin of +/- 5%.
Expected Impact
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has reassured that even if El Niño does occur it may not necessarily cause a significant impact on agriculture. According to IMD, it predicts that rainfall might remain at 94-96% of the long-period average and with an error margin of +/- 5%.
According to experts believe that this time El Niño is likely to be of mild to moderate intensity which may not impact monsoon rains. It is important to note that not all El Niño events do not result in a loss of monsoon. For example in 1997 despite experiencing the most powerful El Niño thus far, the monsoon was not affected.
Current Scenario
India's food grain reserves, including rice and wheat, are currently at ample levels, surpassing the buffer norms requirement. As per the latest data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, there are approximately 159 lakh tonnes of wheat and 104 lakh tonnes of rice in stock. These reserves ensure a stable supply of food grains and can effectively minimize the risk of food shortages during potential agricultural challenges posed by El Niño.
To prepare for the potential impact of El Niño, the IMD is set to offer agro-meteorological advisory services and forecasts for over 700 districts across India. These forecasts will be disseminated through Krishi Vigyan Kendras, guiding farmers and stakeholders. Such advisory services can help farmers make informed decisions and take appropriate measures to mitigate the effects of El Niño on their crops.
Conclusion
While El Niño remains a concern for Indian agriculture and food security the predictions, expected impact, and current scenario provide some reassurance. By implementing effective water management techniques, diversifying crops, and taking proactive measures, farmers can mitigate the potential impact of El Niño on their livelihoods. Additionally, addressing the larger issue of climate change and adopting sustainable practices can contribute to long-term food security in India.
Written by - Vansh Jain
Current Scenario
India's food grain reserves, including rice and wheat, are currently at ample levels, surpassing the buffer norms requirement. As per the latest data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, there are approximately 159 lakh tonnes of wheat and 104 lakh tonnes of rice in stock. These reserves ensure a stable supply of food grains and can effectively minimize the risk of food shortages during potential agricultural challenges posed by El Niño.
To prepare for the potential impact of El Niño, the IMD is set to offer agro-meteorological advisory services and forecasts for over 700 districts across India. These forecasts will be disseminated through Krishi Vigyan Kendras, guiding farmers and stakeholders. Such advisory services can help farmers make informed decisions and take appropriate measures to mitigate the effects of El Niño on their crops.
Conclusion
While El Niño remains a concern for Indian agriculture and food security the predictions, expected impact, and current scenario provide some reassurance. By implementing effective water management techniques, diversifying crops, and taking proactive measures, farmers can mitigate the potential impact of El Niño on their livelihoods. Additionally, addressing the larger issue of climate change and adopting sustainable practices can contribute to long-term food security in India.
Written by - Vansh Jain
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